In January 2025, national refined nickel production decreased 4.9% MoM, up 18.7% YoY. The industry operating rate was 69%, slightly lower MoM. The main reason was the Chinese New Year holiday, during which some enterprises suspended operations, leading to a decline in the operating rate.
In January, nickel prices showed a fluctuating trend. Indonesian nickel ore quota information continuously disrupted nickel prices. However, eventually, with the latest news from ANPI stating that the approved 2025 nickel ore mining work plan and budget (RKAB) totaled 298.49 million mt, nickel ore supply is expected to remain loose, exerting downward pressure on nickel prices. On the macro side, tariff policy fluctuations emerged as Trump announced a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada, causing market sentiment to pull back. Under the influence of multiple factors, nickel prices this month showed a trend of rising first and then falling.
Regarding refined nickel supply and demand, under the influence of the Chinese New Year holiday in January, most downstream enterprises had completed stockpiling in advance, and the spot market transactions were mediocre. Domestic demand overall was weak in January. On the supply side, although some enterprises cut production in January, the overall industry supply remained at a high level. In terms of inventory, SMM's six-region inventory totaled 41,273 mt, and the fundamental supply surplus pattern remained unchanged.
In February, affected by the Chinese New Year holiday, the industry is expected to remain in the traditional off-season. Under the supply surplus, February production is expected to decrease 0.4% MoM, up 22% YoY.
